The ultimate risks, however, are removal from office, imprisonment, or even execution. As he climbs the escalation ladder, Putin’s risk tolerance will increase, as his key subordinates will surely realize. His present difficulties are more likely to provoke escalation within or around Ukraine, both in the military realm and in other domains. Failure in Ukraine places Putin’s political survival at risk and he is, therefore, unlikely to withdraw. In this circumstance, Russia still has cards to play. Vladimir Putin now faces the real possibility of a stalled offensive, or even outright defeat. This assistance has helped to stiffen an already stout Ukrainian defense, which has inflicted heavy losses on the Russian military.
Many allies and partners have provided massive financial and material aid-in the form of funding, as well as anti-tank and air-defense systems and other military equipment-to bolster Ukrainian resistance. Major Russian banks have been disconnected from SWIFT, the international system that facilitates financial transactions, while some oligarchs have been sanctioned. In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed stinging sanctions, disrupting the Russian economy and forcing the Kremlin to burn through its financial reserves. This study will seek to identify key rungs on the escalation ladder around the war in Ukraine assess how the current crisis might escalate inside Ukraine and across NATO’s eastern flank explore how the US and NATO posture can prevent or limit escalation and offer recommendations for how the United States and NATO can adapt their strategy, posture, and activities to manage escalatory dynamics. Whether this takes the form of heightened conflict in Ukraine, increased tension across the whole or parts of NATO’s eastern flank-from Ukraine and the Black Sea to the Baltic Region and the High North-or in non-kinetic, subthreshold domains, understanding how these dynamics might degrade transatlantic stability is critical. Russia’s ruthless aggression and NATO’s response increase the possibility of purposeful or inadvertent escalation in Europe. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is transforming Europe’s security architecture, as well as NATO’s strategic priorities and its defense and deterrence posture.
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